The Unwasted Life

Business Week looks at Wal-Mart’s Midlife Crisis: Declining growth, increasing competition, and not an easy fix in sight

For nearly five decades, Wal-Mart’s signature “everyday low prices” and their enabler—low costs—defined not only its business model but also the distinctive personality of this proud, insular company that emerged from the Ozarks backwoods to dominate retailing. Over the past year and a half, though, Wal-Mart’s growth formula has stopped working. In 2006 its U.S. division eked out a 1.9% gain in same-store sales—its worst performance ever—and this year has begun no better. By this key measure, such competitors as Target, Costco (COST), Kroger (KR), Safeway (SWY), Walgreen’s (WAG), CVS, and Best Buy (BBY) now are all growing two to five times faster than Wal-Mart.

Wal-Mart’s botched entry into cheap-chic apparel is emblematic of the quandary it faces. Is its alarming loss of momentum the temporary result of disruptions caused by transitory errors like the T-shirt screwup and by overdue improvements such as the store remodeling program launched last year? Or is Wal-Mart doing lasting damage to its low-budget franchise by trying to compete with much hipper, nimbler rivals for the middle-income dollar? Should the retailer redouble its efforts to out-Target Target, or would it be better off going back to basics?

They might want to stick to what they do best. I have heard from far too many suburban housewives that Wal-Mart feels more like the UN than anything hip or chic.

The article paints a favorable picture for Kroger at present:

Consider the return to form of Kroger Co., the largest and oldest U.S. supermarket chain. Cincinnati-based Kroger competes against more Wal-Mart Supercenters—1,000 at last count—than any other grocer. Which is why until recently the only real interest Wall Street took in the old-line giant was measuring it for a coffin. Today, though, a rejuvenated Kroger is gaining share faster in the 32 markets where it competes with Wal-Mart than in the 12 where it does not.

A recent Bank of America (BAC) survey of three such markets—Atlanta, Houston, and Nashville—found that Kroger’s prices were 7.5% higher on average than Wal-Mart’s, compared with 20% to 25% five years ago. This margin is thin enough to allow Kroger to again bring to bear such “core competencies” as service, quality, and convenience, says BofA’s Scott A. Mushkin, who recently switched his Kroger rating to buy from sell. “We’re saying the game has changed, and it looks like it has changed substantially in Kroger’s favor,” he says.